Worried about flooding? Yes, you are

According to The Weather Network, Brandon and area might not be seeing these road signs this spring. (Cee-Lo Knows / Flickr)

Despite the dramatic snowfall that touched down in southern Manitoba, the southwestern portion of the province is predicted to experience near-normal weather patterns this spring.

In the 2013 Spring Outlook released by The Weather Network on Tuesday, March 5th, Brandon is anticipated to receive an early spring, with near-normal values for both temperature and precipitation.

Brandon is projected to experience an average daytime high for March anticipated to be at -1°C, followed by 10°C in April, and 19°C in May.

Whereas the southeastern and south-central portions of Manitoba will experience above-average precipitation, The Weather Network’s Meteorologist Gina Ressler is forecasting “near-normal precipitation amounts for the Brandon area. There are no expectations for a wetter or drier than normal spring for Brandon.”

Ressler is anticipating Brandon to have 100 millilitres of precipitation within the next three months, which is down considerably from the 137 millilitres recorded in the same time period a year ago, and the 186.5 millilitres recorded in the spring of 2011.

Ressler is still expecting a turbulent weather pattern for Manitoba in the coming weeks, as “we still have the chance of having a few more winter storms.”

Temperatures are anticipated to rise significantly as the average amount of sunlight increases heading into April.

Many Manitobans are left concerned with the possibility of flooding this spring given the recent snowfall.

Ressler added that although we have seen a rather large amount of precipitation as of late, it should not drastically affect the flood forecast due to the lower precipitation experienced heading into the winter months.

She stated that the while there is a small possibility of flooding, “we are in a better position than in 2011” with the normal values expected this spring.

The spring outlook stated that the city of Brandon will not be affected by the below-normal temperatures slated to affect British Columbia, and the above-normal temperatures predicted to hit southern Ontario, Quebec, portions of Nunavut, and select regions in the Maritimes.

The southwestern regions of the United States, alongside British Columbia, are expected to have below-normal levels of precipitation, whereas the area along the eastern border of Alberta, east to south-central Saskatchewan, going north to the border of Nunavut and the Northwest Territories, in addition to the central portion of Baffin Island, is predicted to have above-normal precipitation.

Above-normal precipitation is also expected for the Midwest, descending from the Interlake region in Manitoba along the southern segment of the Great Lakes to central Ohio.

Although it is difficult to calculate a value that accurately indicates a “normal” condition for a continental climate such as Canada that reflects the average temperature or amount of precipitation, a representational value is able to serve as a benchmark through the calculation of the mathematical mean.

The values collected for the normal are collected from the 30-year period of 1961 to 1990 in accordance with an international agreement. The “normal” for a weather statistic such as temperature or precipitation is calculated through the arithmetical mean or averaging of the observed values collected for that particular condition, by adding the total values and dividing the sum by thirty.

Republished from The Quill print edition, Volume 103, Issue 24, March 12, 2013.